The Malawi Electoral Support Network (MESN) is a registered network of 27 non-governmental and faith-based organisations in Malawi. MESN was formed with the core objective of facilitating coordination among civil society organizations engaged in election monitoring, civic and voter education in Malawi and a platform for dialogue, advocacy and lobbying on electoral matters. Since its establishment in 2003, MESN has successfully observed the 2004 and 2009 parliamentary and presidential elections as well as the 2014 Tripartite Elections.

For the 2019 Tripartite Elections, MESN deployed nearly 1,400 volunteers across the country to observe on Election Day. Prior to Election Day, MESN deployed 57 Long-Term Observers (LTOs) to all 28 districts who provided structured observation of the pre-election period as part of its Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) initiative. MESN also deployed 386 observers to all 193 constituencies during biometric voter registration and, subsequently, to observe instances of violence against women in elections (VAWE) under the Gender Elections Engagement Room (GEER).
For Election Day, MESN’s observations sought to make the 2019 Tripartite Elections more inclusive by giving voters confidence to participate; more transparent by providing systematic information on the conduct of the process; and more accountable by independently verifying the accuracy of the official results for the presidential election as announced by the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC).

For the PVT, 907 observers were assigned to statistical samples of 800 polling streams and 809 polling stations. PVT Observers arrived at 5:00AM and observed the entire process until the official presidential results were announced for the entire polling station. Throughout the day they sent in observation reports in near real-time via coded text messages using their mobile phones. This enabled MESN to provide the nation with the most accurate and timely information on the conduct of voting and counting. Further, MESN’s PVT is able to independently verify if the official results for the presidential election are accurate and truly reflect the ballots cast at polling streams and polling stations.

MESN PVT data provided a detailed picture of the conduct of the 2019 Tripartite Election across the entire country. MESN’s main findings were:

1. There was a clear improvement in logistics from 2014.
2. As a result of improved logistics, polling streams largely opened on time in contrast to 2014.
3. Voting was largely conducted in accordance with MEC procedures as in 2014.
4. Insufficient logistical preparations and lack of clarity on the procedures and training, resulted in significant delays in the start of counting and the time required for counting, but counting was conducted in a transparent and inclusive manner and these issues did not appear to undermine the credibility of the counting process.These challenges likely existed in 2014, but were overshadowed by concerns over logistics and the collation of results.
5. Once counting was completed for polling streams, the announcement of presidential
results for entire polling stations was transparent and inclusive.

MESN PVT Observers specifically collected data on the participation of party representatives
in the counting process at polling streams and polling stations. In particular, PVT observers
reported that there were party representatives for Chakwera/MCP at 96% and for
Mutharika/DPP at 99% of sampled polling streams for the counting of presidential results. At
96% of sampled polling streams with a Chakwera/MCP party representative, the person agreed
with the official polling stream presidential results while at 95% of polling streams with a
Mutharika/DPP party representative, the person agreed with the official polling stream
presidential results. Further, at 96% of sampled polling stations a Chakwera/MCP party
representative signed the official presidential results form while at 99% of sampled polling
stations a Mutharika/DPP party representative signed official presidential results form.
The MEC has now announced the official results for the 2019 presidential election. MESN is
independently verifying the official presidential results as announced by MEC based on PVT
results data from a random and representative sample of 800 polling streams1. It is at the polling
stream where votes are cast and counted. If the MEC’s official results fall within the PVT
estimated ranges, then MESN’s PVT verifies the MEC’s official results reflect the ballots cast
at polling streams. However, if they fall outside the PVT’s estimated ranges then it provides
empirical evidence that official results have been manipulated. The PVT sample of 800 polling
streams was carefully selected using well-established statistical principles from all the three
regions, 28 districts and 193 constituencies of the country. All sampled polling streams were
well spread across the regions, districts and constituencies. At the sampled 800 polling streams
there were a total of 498,062 registered voters. All PVT Observers were carefully recruited and
trained and duly accredited by the MEC. MESN received and verified reports from 99.9% of
its PVT Observers. All data was received by the morning of 22 May.

The PVT estimates show turnout should be between 74.9% and 76.1% (75.5% +/- 0.6%). As
MESN previously reported, at 24% of polling streams, PVT Observers found there were one or
more presidential ballot papers declared “null and void” for which the voter’s intention was
clear. However, MESN’s PVT shows and the percentage of rejected ballot papers should be
between 1.5 % and 2.1%. Therefore, this issue did not affect a large number of ballot papers.
Further, party representatives overwhelmingly agreed with the results suggesting that this issue,
while widespread, did not affect a large number of ballots.
MESN’s PVT shows that for every candidate the MEC’s official presidential result closely
matches the PVT estimate and fall within the estimated range.

MESN’s PVT results data shows:
• Dr. Lazarus Chakwera (MCP) between 32.8% and 37.4%;
• Dr. Saulous Klaus Chilima (UTM) between 18.8% and 21.4%;
• Professor John Eugene Chisi (UP) between 0.3% and 0.5%;
• Mr. Reverend Hadwick Kaliya (Independent) between 0.2% and 0.4%;
• Mr. Peter Dominic Sinosi Driver Kuwani (MMD) between 0.3% and 0.5%;
• Mr. Atepele Austin Muluzi (UDF) between 4.3% and 5.7%; and
• Mutharika between 36.4% and 40.8%.

The PVT estimates, listed above, are consistent with the MEC’s official presidential
results and therefore, the PVT can independently verify that the official results for the
presidential election as announced by MEC reflect ballots cast and counted at polling
streams. While PVT does not provide evidence that the presidential results have been
manipulated, the PVT results data cannot definitively determine the order for the two leading
candidates because of the overlap in the estimated ranges.

For more details please download the full report :MESN Verification of Presidential Results TPE 2019